Consumer prices (March 2026)
Headline consumer-price inflation in Indonesia eased to 3.48 percent year-on-year in March, according to Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), returning within Bank Indonesia’s 1.5 to 3.5 percent target range after February’s 4.76 percent spike. The February jump was largely a base effect, as a 2025 electricity tariff discount programme dropped out of the 12-month comparison window.
Clothing and footwear inflation remains effectively flat at 0.65 percent year-on-year in March, down marginally from 0.73 percent in February, per BPS. Indonesian clothing prices have been broadly stable through early 2026 — a pattern consistent with developing-Asia peers where fashion inflation runs well below headline.
Retail sales (February 2026)
Indonesian retail sales grew 6.5 percent year-on-year in February, according to Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey, the fastest pace since March 2024. Month-on-month retail rose 4.1 percent, the strongest monthly rise in eleven months. The acceleration reflects pre-Lebaran shopping: Ramadan 2026 began on 19 February and Lebaran (Idul Fitri) fell on 21 March, per Indonesia’s Ministry of Religious Affairs. The Ramadan-pulled-forward consumption pattern is unique to the Indonesian calendar.
Within the retail basket, clothing sales rose 4.9 percent year-on-year in February, up from 3.4 percent in January. Automotive parts and accessories led at plus 13.1 percent, followed by food, beverages and tobacco at plus 8.8 percent and cultural and recreational goods at plus 10.1 percent. Automotive fuel (−9.3 percent) and information and communication equipment (−28.3 percent) were the weakest categories.
Consumer confidence
Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 122.9 in March from 125.2 in February — the lowest reading since October 2025, though still comfortably above the 100 optimism threshold. The decline was broad-based across sub-indices: economic outlook down 4.0 points to 130.4, income expectations six months ahead down 3.0 points to 137.7, and job availability expectations down 3.7 points to 128.0. Sentiment weakened despite the Ramadan retail surge.
Monetary policy and currency
Bank Indonesia has held the BI-Rate at 4.75 percent since September 2025, completing a 150-basis-point cutting cycle from the April 2024 peak of 6.25 percent across six meetings over 13 months (of which 125 basis points were delivered in 2025 alone). The rupiah weakened 0.58 percent against the US dollar in March, with the BIS monthly mean moving from 16,827 to 16,924 per dollar, while strengthening 1.68 percent against the euro to 19,561 per euro.
Note: this article combines the most recent official data available at the time of writing. Reporting lags differ by indicator and country, so not all figures refer to the same month. Each data point is labelled with its reference period.
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